According to Goldman Sachs, there is an underestimated indicator flashing red for some developed markets, Bloomberg reports.

Financial balance of private sector is a total economy’s income minus all spending from households and firms. In opinion of Goldman’s analytics, it is more valuable for predicting crisis than current account balance.

Good news is that such large economies as the US, euro area and Japan have private sector surplus. The bad news is that some smaller economies, such as Canada and UK, observe serious deficit. It means that they are more vulnerable to influence of higher interest rates and weaker assets market.

And this is one more warning for global economy.

Private sector deficit means that households and firms are not able to finance current spending using their income and rely on borrowing or sales of assets. This can hurt growth and financial stability given environment of rising rates.

Canada and UK are under risk mostly due to overheated housing market in Canada and Brexit in UK.